As the Bitcoin halving event in 2024 approaches, investors should consider several factors to prepare for potential impacts on the market. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have led to increased scarcity, which can influence supply and demand dynamics. Here are some considerations for investors:
1. **Understanding the Halving**: Familiarize yourself with the concept of Bitcoin halving. It occurs approximately every four years, reducing the reward for miners by half. This scarcity mechanism is designed to control the total supply of Bitcoin.
2. **Market Sentiment and Speculation**: Monitor market sentiment and speculation leading up to the halving. Historical patterns suggest that anticipation of reduced supply can lead to increased demand, potentially affecting prices.
3. **Technical Analysis**: Utilize technical analysis to study price charts, trends, and key support/resistance levels. Technical indicators may provide insights into potential price movements.
4. **Risk Management**: Cryptocurrency markets can be highly volatile. Implement effective risk management strategies, including setting stop-loss orders and diversifying your investment portfolio to manage potential risks.
5. **Stay Informed**: Keep abreast of industry news, regulatory developments, and any updates from the Bitcoin development community. External factors can influence the market, and staying informed is crucial.
6. **Long-Term Perspective**: Consider a long-term investment approach. While short-term fluctuations are common, many investors view Bitcoin as a store of value over the long term.
7. **Security Measures**: Ensure that your cryptocurrency holdings are stored securely. Consider using hardware wallets or other secure storage solutions to protect your assets.
8. **Diversification**: Diversify your investment portfolio beyond Bitcoin. While Bitcoin is a significant player, diversification helps spread risk across different assets.
Remember that investing in cryptocurrencies involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It’s advisable to consult with financial professionals and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
Bitcoin halving or commonly called halving is an event when the reward for Bitcoin mining is cut to half of the previous reward. This event is estimated to occur every four years.
The policy of this mechanism is written into the Bitcoin mining algorithm to overcome inflation while maintaining scarcity. Historically, a reduction in Bitcoin’s emission rate leads to an increase in BTC prices after the halving.
This article discusses the fourth halving in 2024, BTC price predictions, and actions that must be taken before and after the 2024 halving.
Fourth Bitcoin Halving in 2024
Historically there have been three halvings, namely on 28 November 2012, 9 July 2016, and 11 May 2020. Based on the countdown from the Coinmarketcap site, the fourth halving will occur around 140 days from the time this article was written (29/11/23), namely 17 April 2024.
Perlu dicatat bahwa tanggal di atas bukan waktu yang pasti, sebab kejadian halving bukan berdasarkan penanggalan pasti tetapi berdasarkan kecepatan jaringan Bitcoin dalam memproduksi blok transaksi. Semakin cepat jaringan Bitcoin memproduksi blok, maka semakin cepat pula halving terjadi.
Secara teknis, halving terjadi setiap 210.000 blok transaksi Bitcoin terbentuk. Blok transaksi pada jaringan Bitcoin terbentuk dengan estimasi waktu rata-rata 10 menit.Hal ini mengakibatkan estimasi halving terjadi adalah setiap 2.100.000 menit, yang dimana jika dikonversi ke dalam tahun menjadi 3,99 tahun atau mendekati 4 tahun.
Image: Countdown to the fourth halving. Source: Coinmarketcap
It should be noted that the date above is not a definite time, because the halving event is not based on a definite date but based on the speed of the Bitcoin network in producing transaction blocks. The faster the Bitcoin network produces blocks, the faster the halving occurs.
Technically, halving occurs every 210,000 Bitcoin transaction blocks are formed. Transaction blocks on the Bitcoin network are formed with an estimated average time of 10 minutes. This results in an estimated halving occurring every 2,100,000 minutes, which if converted into years becomes 3.99 years or close to 4 years.
Image: Bitcoin transaction block (11/29/23). Source: Blockchair
The fourth halving by transaction block will occur on the 840,000th transaction block. According to the explorer site Blockchair, the most recent Bitcoin transaction block was 818,968 (11/29/23). So that leaves 21,032 transaction blocks towards the fourth halving. The miner’s reward will be cut to 3.125 BTC per block, from 6.25 BTC per block previously.
Prediksi Harga BTC Dari Data Historis Halving
Sebelum membahas prediksi harga Bitcoin saat halving, akan disajikan data historis bagaimana pergerakan harga Bitcoin terlihat sebelum dan setelah pada event halving sebelumnya.
BTC Price Prediction From Historical Halving Data
Before discussing Bitcoin price predictions during the halving, historical data will be presented on how Bitcoin price movements looked before and after the previous halving event.
Image: Pre and post halving BTC price historical data. Source: Coinvestasi
To date, there have only been three Bitcoin halvings, making it difficult to conclude how BTC performed before and after the halving due to limited data. However, a consistent trend that can be seen from previous halvings is that one month before the three Bitcoin halvings, Bitcoin prices were lower compared to when the halvings took place. Apart from that, six months after the halving, the price of Bitcoin is always higher than the price during the halving.
Image: Halving cycle. Source: Coinvestasi
If you look at it cyclically, there are two phases after the halving, namely: bull market and bear market, and one phase before the halving, namely the accumulation phase. The three previous halvings succeeded in triggering a bull market after an accumulation phase, where data shows that the bull market will reach its peak in mid to late 2025.
As per this article written (29/11/23), currently it is still in the accumulation phase, which is a relatively good time for investors and retailers to buy Bitcoin.
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